- US durable goods orders fall 2.5%; ex-transportation, rise 1.1%
- Non-defense capital goods orders ex-transportation (core) rise 1.4%
- German preliminary CPI falls 0.1% in July, 0.4% y/y
- Fed’s Dudley sees lackluster recovery in second half of 2009; Fed has tools to avoid inflation despite extraordinary liquidity measures.
- Fed Watcher Berry endorses second Bernanke term at Fed helm
- IMF’s Strauss-Kahn: Dollar a long way from losing supremacy
- US auctions 5 year notes at 2.689%; bid-to-cover weak at 1.9
- Fed’s Beige Book paints picture of slow recovery, high joblessness
- House Democrats reach compromise on national health care
- Oil falls sharply, down 6.5% or $4.32 to $62.90; China, rise in inventories weigh
- S&P falls 1% intraday, rebounds late to close down 0.4%
Dollar alternatives were shunned today as risk-aversion and position adjustment dominated the markets. EUR/USD fell from 1.4160 in early US trade to the 1.4008 level, wearing away at multiple support levels on the slide. We’ve broken back within the triangle that contained EUR/USD price action for much of the summer with the slide below the 1.4175 level.
Oil, another favorite of dollar bears, was under attack throughout the US session. We were within a dime of $69 early yesterday and ended today below $63.
Gold slipped as well, down to $925 intraday from $956 yesterday.
Against this backdrop the commodity currencies gave ground again. UAD/USD fell as low as 0.8122 before rebounding to end at 0.8163. It probed below the 10-day avg at 0.8153 but looks like it well end above.
USD/CAD took out yesterday’s 1.0905 highs to trigger stops but the Loonie held up well despite slide in commodities and risk appetite.
USD/JPY was supported by firm US yields and spent most of the US session around the 95.00 area, confounding those expecting the JPY to strengthen as risk was taken off the board. Forex shows us time and time again that there are no sure things in this game…
GBP/USD was bough by the bucket load in London in the 1.6350/60 region and traded very well relative to the EUR all day. Fundamentals didn’t seem to play into the buying; it looked more like a one-off flow, traders said.
