Europe/US gets Draghi and a billion point (or whatever) move in the EUR

We get the New Zealand commodity price index for November.

Awesome

Comes in at -5.6% m/m

  • prior +7.1%, revised from 6.9%
  • Down 15.3% y/y (prior -11.6%)
  • In NZD terms, down 4.5% m/m and down 1 % y/y

ANZ cite

  • High global milk supply
  • Bearish commodity sentiment
  • "Fairly lackluster" demand from China"

Make note of that "In NZD terms, down 4.5% m/m and down 1 % y/y" ... the falling NZD has been a cushion to an extent from falling commodity prices ... but that effect is diminishing with the (relative) stabilisation of the NZD ... this is likely to be a factor the RBNZ will consider strongly next week at the policy meeting ... it will increase the probability of a cut in NZ rates - the argument will go that lower rates should impact to lower the currency, which will not only give a boost in income (in local dollar terms) but will give a boost to inflation 9thoruhg higher import prices)


(ps. the earlier selling in the after it popped 0.6700, was from macro funds ... and as I said earlier, there are more offers sitting around 0.6710)