NZ GDP for the October to December quarter
- Due Thursday New Zealand time, but for the Zulu's amongst us ... Wednesday 20 December (2145 GMT)
- expected +0.6% q/q and +2.4% y/y
- prior +0.8% and 2.5% respectively
Those expectations are from the Bloomberg survey. Looking at the big 4 New Zealand banks, though
- 3 expect +0.4% q/q
- while one expects 0.7% (BNZ)
Some remarks from the analysts:
ANZ say indications for Q4 look a little stronger
- The bank retains a generally positive view on medium-term growth prospects
- But see the potential for growth over the next few quarters to remain somewhat mediocre and sub-trend
ANZ cite headwinds
- from the softer housing market
- transitioning in terms of its growth drivers
- unease regarding the new political direction
- dry weather potentially hampering agricultural production
See reasonable prospects of a growth wobble
BNZ:
- It's not too bad, but given the population growth that has happened underneath it, it's not what you would call a strong rate of growth
ASB Have revised down their "big picture" view on growth
- 2.2% y/y (from 2.5%)
- At the start of 2017 our expectations for economic growth were perky ... We had expected low interest rates, still-strong population growth, construction demand and a lift in per-capita demand to boost activity.
- But GDP outcomes have underwhelmed
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Note, for the release of this GDP data, there is a possibility of big revisions to past data
- The release includes two years of annual benchmarking updates
