Here is a preview for the Q1 New Zealand inflation data due at 2245GMT on 19 April 2015
That's at 1045am local time in New Zealand om Monday (and 1845 US east coast time on Sunday)
The consensus expected (Reuters poll) is -0.2% q/q and +0.2% y/y, to a 15-year low
The RBNZ 'target' for inflation is 2% over the medium term ... which is obviously a long way for what is expected to be shown by the data
Analyst comments on whats expected:
- Reuters: The quarterly drop in the consumer price index will be led by a fall of about 10 percent in petrol prices, and a seasonal drop in international airfares, which will offset the usual rise in alcohol and tobacco taxes, education costs and food. The RBNZ generally disregards such wild price swings when setting rates, but remains on the alert for domestic price pressures - the non-tradables such as housing, electricity, and building costs - which rose 2.4 percent in 2014. In contrast, the relative strength of the New Zealand dollar will have dampened imported or tradable inflation, which fell 1.3 percent in the year to December.
- Westpac senior economist Michael Gordon: "The broader picture remains one of subdued inflation despite a rapidly growing economy"
- ANZ senior economist Mark Smith: "The short-term outlook for consumer price inflation is soft. The hurdle to an OCR (official cash rate) cut remains relatively high and we expect a prolonged period of stability in OCR settings,"
