From the NZ Treasury's Monthly Economic Indicators for July 2015, published today

In summary:

Business sentiment slipped in the June quarter and, along with other indicators, points to growth around trend over the coming year.

  • Business confidence and firms' activity expectations eased from earlier levels, although both remain around historical averages.
  • GDP growth supported by high migration, robust construction activity and solid labour income growth.

Inflation was weak in the June quarter, apart from housing costs and petrol prices, and inflation pressures remain subdued

  • annual inflation of only 0.3%, below market expectations. Both tradable and non-tradable sectors - are showing weak price increases
  • Pricing pressures remain subdued, pointing to continued low inflation over the rest of 2015

Dairy prices fell further in July, pointing to lower terms of trade

  • GDT index down 41% since March 2015.
  • Along with other weak commodity prices, points to lower terms of trade than expected in the Budget Update. However, easier monetary conditions will act to offset some of the reduction in national income from the falling terms of trade.

International data were generally positive, but risks around Greece and China were elevated early in the month

More:

  • The recovery in the US was sustained
  • Activity and inflation continued to pick up from a low level in the euro area
  • Domestic activity was stronger than expected in Australia
  • Risks around Greek debt and the Chinese equity market receded slightly over July, but remain elevated
  • Monetary policy is expected to tighten in the US and the UK, but was eased in China and Canada
  • Lower global demand and increased supply drove commodity prices lower, including dairy, iron ore and crude oil