By Theresa Sheehan

PRINCETON (SMRA) – In the final week of October, the economic data
may have a little trouble keeping market attention as the November 2-3
FOMC meeting draws closer. None of it is likely to sway opinion that
further easing in policy is on the way, but should the numbers on
housing and consumer confidence be stronger than expected, it will add
an element of uncertainty.

The data on the housing market will probably dominate the week.

The report on September sales of existing homes is set for release
Monday at 10:00 ET, and sales of new single-family homes are scheduled
for 10:00 ET Wednesday. The levels should continue to improve after the
plunges related to the end of the homebuyer tax credit program, but will
still be quite depressed.

Home prices in August will be better known after the release of the
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index at 9:00 ET Tuesday, and the FHFA House
Price Index at 10:00 ET the same day. Prices have been more stable in
the last few months, but low levels of sales continue to restrain the
recovery in home values.

The first estimate of third quarter GDP will be made public at 8:30
ET Friday. While there was some inventory building during the quarter,
and net exports were lower, this number is likely to look much like the
second quarter with sluggish housing and cautious consumer spending.

Consumer confidence has been struggling to regain ground in the
last few months. The onset of the election season, with its attendant
heightening of uncertainties in regard to the future, will make it
difficult to see any improvement in overall conditions.

The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index is at 10:00 ET
Tuesday, and the final Reuters/University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment
Index is out 9:55 ET Friday.

Another indicator of manufacturing activity for October will be
released Monday, with the Dallas Fed Texas Manufacturing Outlook coming
out at 10:30 ET, followed by the Richmond Fed’s Manufacturing Index at
10:00 ET Tuesday.

The New York and Philadelphia Fed’s report have already signaled
some recovery after the downturn in late summer, and these next two are
likely to follow that lead. The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey
will be released 11:00 ET Thursday, but this report does not have an
overall index.

The Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer for October is
out 09:45 ET Friday, and will be the last piece of data to set
expectations for the ISM Manufacturing Index on Monday, November 1.

The report on durable goods orders in September at 8:30 ET
Wednesday will likely swing higher on strong orders of civilian
aircraft. The transportation component has been the main source of
volatility in this report for some months, as demand for motor vehicles
wavers and Boeing orders surged in July and August.

The Employment Cost Index for the third quarter is out 8:30 ET
Friday, and will probably show only modest growth in wages and salaries,
with some increases in benefits.

There are routine monetary policy announcements on the calendar
from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and the Bank of Japan, both in the
overnight on Wednesday-Thursday. The Bank of Japan has introduced
further measures to stimulate the domestic economy, and is likely to
take a break at this meeting. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand also
appears to be on hold for the moment.

A number of Fed officials are making public speeches Monday, but
most are going to be in the form of largely ceremonial appearances. The
press blackout period in advance of the FOMC meeting is approaching.

At this point the district bank presidents have made their views
known on the issue of further easing in monetary policy. Chairman
Bernanke laid out his thinking in an October 15 speech in Boston, and at
this point he is unlikely to have anymore to add.

The Treasury will auction four coupon offerings Monday through
Thursday. In order, these are a reopening of 5-year TIPS, and new 2-,
5-, and 7-year notes. These are the last coupons before the quarterly
refunding is announced November 3, except for a reopening of 10-year
TIPS notes Monday, November 1.

The third quarter earnings season rolls along. On Monday, look for
reports from Libbey, Lorillard, Sony, Taiwan Semiconductor, and
McGraw-Hill. Tuesday, reports are expected from Aflac, Boston
Properties, Bristol-Myers Squibb, CB Richard Ellis, Celadon, CIT Group,
DuPont, Ford, Kimberly-Clark, Michelin, UBS, US Steel, and Valero
Energy.

On Wednesday, reports continue with ADP, BorgWarner, Choice Hotels,
Deutsche Bank, Dr. Pepper Snapple, Duke Realty, International Paper,
Norfolk Southern, Northrop Grumman, Office Depot, Owens Corning, PSEG,
Realty Income, Ryland Group, Sealed Air, Sprint Nextel, Allstate, and
Visa.

On Thursday, the highlights are 3M, Banco Santander, Bayer,
Colgate-Palmolive, Diebold, Eastman Kodak, ExxonMobil, Goodyear,
Mack-Cali Realty, MetLife, Microsoft, Moody’s, Motorola, OfficeMax,
Raytheon, Sanofi-Aventis, Sunoco, The Blackstone Group, Dow Chemical,
Thompson Reuters, and Waste Management.

On Friday, the week’s reports wind down with Amgen, Chevron, Cigna,
Honda, Mitsubishi, Panasonic, Pfizer, and Weyerhaeuser.

** Stone & McCarthy Research Associates **

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