We've got a Non-farm payrolls preview: By the numbers here

Here's a brief look at what some of the banks are looking for.

Goldman Sachs:

  • Goldman's note that the 4-week moving average of initial jobless claims for the reference period for the jobs report fell by 19,000

On the other hand ...

  • The employment components of various manufacturing surveys have been weak (Dallas Fed manufacturing survey, Chicago PMI & the ISM services report)
  • Mining sector job losses may persist and continue to be a drag
  • GS say that the consensus forecast has overestimated jobs growth in May for the last few years, by 56,000 on average over the previous 5 years
  • Warm weather likely inflated the jobs number in April, but this may have taken from jobs gains in May

Barclays:

  • Expect nonfarm payrolls to rise by 225k
  • Private payrolls to increase by 220k
  • Government payrolls to grow by 5k
  • They note initial and continuing claims both fell sharply in May from April

Deutsche Bank:

  • Say that jobless claims are hovering near a 15-year low
  • The growth rate of employee tax withholding receipts has meaningfully increased from the April to May employment survey periods (up about 5.6% in May compared to less than 4% in April)

RBS:

  • Expect average hourly earnings growth to rise from 2.2% to 2.3% y/y
  • Which would equal the largest y/y increase since 2009
  • Expect unemployment rate steady at 5.4%
  • Stronger-than-expected employment should keep the Fed on pace to hike the Fed Funds rate in September, and pulling forward of expectations could support the USD. A stronger USD and pulled-forward rate hike expectations could pressure commodity prices and weigh on commodity exporter currencies