No Brexit vote Tuesday in the UK, guess we'll be watching the data then?
Only kidding, there will be plenty of Brexit big mouths gabbling away to shove the financial markets around;
- Boris Johnson says he will be buying new pants - BUY GBP!
- Boris Johnson says they'll be shorts - SELL GBP!
(your headlines may differ)
But, if you are interested, UK employment data is due at 0930GMT
Preview via Barclays:
- Claimant count stabilized in October following the steady rise in recent months, however recruitment consultants continue to highlight staff shortages and rising wage pressures. We expect wage growth to stay strong with core at 3.2% 3m/y and headline at 3% 3m/y
- UK pay growth took another step higher in September, rising to a post-crisis high of 3.2%3m/yr (regular pay). However, unemployment picked up to 4.1%. We expect these numbers to be unchanged in the October release.
- The rate of job creation will be of interest, given it has slowed of late. This may reflect the higher cost of hiring and increasingly tight supply of labour(exacerbated by the fall in net migration)
- On the wage front, we expect AWE regular pay (3m/YoY) to stay put at 3.2%. Note, while wage growth picked up in September as we expected, our projected increase in public sector pay for September did not materialise, given administrative delays. As such, over 600k employees should now see pay rises in September/October.
- Additionally, October will also see pay rises for doctors and dentists, adding an additional 130k public sector employees that will see their wage growth double from 1% last year to 2%.
- Looking att he unemployment rate, after our expected increase materialised last month, we anticipate the jobless rate will continue to trend at 4.1% for the remainder of the year. However, there are still risks: October's claimant count data picked up againr eaching 2.7% - the highest rate in four years.