Of all the data in recent weeks, the retail sales figures are the most troublesome. Employment is supposed to be a lagging indicator, but judging by jobless claims, the worst for the economy was months ago. So where is the retail spending? Cash for clunkers was supposed to goose the whole economy and help set up a second-half recovery. 3% growth in the last two-quarters is baked in the cake. Or was, I should say.
And if the US consumer refuses to consume, what does that say for China, the ultimate export-dependent economy? Egads, it could be a long, slow slog for the global economy. There is no rush for risk assets as far as I can see.
