A preview of New Zealand Q2 GDP due on Thursday New Zealand time
At 2245GMT on Wednesday (16 September 2015)
- For the q/q, expected is +0.6% and prior was +0.2%
- For the y/y, expected is +2.5% and prior was +2.6%
The RBNZ forecast is also for +0.6% q/q (thats from the September Monetary Policy Statement, which was released last week)
The bounce in quarterly GDP (the previous quarter was +0.2%) is predicated on higher rural production after the drought impact in Q1:
- This will feed through (apologies in advance for the pun ... wait for it) to higher food production manufacturing
- Also look for a better performance from construction (note that while activity is slowing in the Canterbury rebuild, it is picking up in Auckland) and from the service sector
-
Note the GDP data release will be accompanied by historical revisions from Statistics New Zealand. These may add some volatility to the figures. nest estimates are for revisions to detract from consumption growth, but add to growth in services exports ... and for these to more or less balance out for the overall figure. but, it's a potential wild card to watch out for.
-
Looking further ahead (to Q3 and beyond), there should be a fall in GDP results, most noticeably as the fall in dairy prices (and thus national income) bites harder, and Canterbury construction peaks and falls.
