Figuring out exactly how the market is positioned is an inexact science which needs to take spot, futures, options etc into account but some of the big banks are pretty good at this sort of thing.
I’m just reading a report from one of the big investment houses which puts USD short positions against the AUD, NZD and JPY at quite severe levels. They also interestingly put EUR/USD positioning at close to flat, something else in favour of my EUR/AUD trade.
Short term they expect the increased risk aversion to negatively affect AUD/USD, NZD/USD but that the market is already positioned on USD/JPY so downside may be limited there. Longer term they still expect the USD to weaken.
