GBP/USD is a quarter-cent lower in early-week trading. Data on UK home prices was a bit better so these moves are all about Thursday’s referendum.

The weekend polls were mixed:

  • Survation – No 53.5% ahead Yes on 46.5%. A word of caution though here as it was commissioned by the Better Together No campaign.

  • Opinium/Observer poll showed a narrow gap in favour of No. Excluding undecided voters, the poll found 53 % of those questioned plan to vote No while 47 % intend to vote Yes.

  • An internet survey of 705 Scots by ICM for The Telegraph has Yes voters leading by 54% versus 46% for the No campaign. The word of caution here is that the poll size is less than the usual number around 1000
  • A poll publised today by the Sunday Times, conducted by Panelbase, has No on 50.6% with Yes on 49.4%

The pound touched a one-week high of 1.9279 in early trading but later slipped all the way to 1.6232. Last at 1.6245.

The two themes in early trading are GBP weakness and the falling Australian dollar.