Yep, 20. Here's your usual summary of what the banks are looking for, courtesy of our friends at efxnews.com. Subscribe now for all their latest client notes
Goldman: Change in Nonfarm Payrolls: 220K, Change in Private Payrolls: 213K, Unemployment Rate: 5.4%, Average Hourly Earnings: (0.1% mom).
Deutsche Bank: 225K, 210K, Unemployment Rate: 5.3%, Average Hourly Earnings: (0.2% mom).
Morgan Stanley:Change in Nonfarm Payrolls: 220K, Unemployment Rate: 5.4%
ANZ: : 250K, : 5.4%
TD: : 233K, : 5.5%
Westpac: : 235K, : 5.4%
BNPP: We expect another strong employment report, with total non-farm payrolls rising 250k and the unemployment rate dropping back to the cycle lows of 5.4% achieved in April. Our forecasts are better than consensus and, while expectations may have shifted higher in the aftermath of the strong ADP and ISM reports Wednesday, markets remain under-priced for Fed tightening and light on USD positioning. While a full adjustment to price in September lift-off might need to await the July 15 Yellen testimony or the July 29 Fed policy statement, we expect front-end rates to move higher in the aftermath of a strong release and the USD should follow.
BofA Merrill: The employment report is likely to show another solid month of job creation in June. We look for job growth of 220,000, a slowdown from the 280,000 pace in May but consistent with the recent trend. As a result, the unemployment rate will likely lower to 5.4% from 5.5%.
Barclays: We are forecasting a creation of 250k jobs, compared to the market consensus of 227k. This would push down the unemployment rate from 5.5% to 5.4% assuming the participation rate does not change materially. As in recent employment reports, the market will closely follow wage developments as a measure of labor slack and upcoming inflationary pressures. We and the market expect a y/y increase of 2.3% in the average hourly earnings. In this regard, we believe the USD will continue to be supported especially versus the EUR.
SocGen: SG's economists forecast a 'steady as she goes' 210K payrolls gain, with unemployment down to 5.4% from 5.5% and wage growth edging down to 2.2% on a calendar quirk. That's a recipe for a quiet afternoon in FX but perhaps for a good one in equities. I think anything above 250K is enough for EUR/USD to get below 1.10.
Nomura: With US economic momentum continuing to pick up from the tepid growth in the first quarter, we forecast that the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will announce on Thursday, 2 July, that a net new 235k jobs were added to US nonfarm payrolls in June. unemployment rate to fall to 5.3% by August,
Credit Suisse: We expect a robust 240K gain in June payrolls. we expect the unemployment rate to reverse last month's rise, moving back to 5.4%, in line with consensus.
Credit Agricole: payrolls to rise 245k. .
Nordea: We expect a 210k gain in nonfarm payrolls in June after the booming 280k rise in May. unemployment rate to fall to 5.4% from 5.5% in May,
LIoyds: We expect a 235k rise in employment, while the unemployment rate is forecast to dip to 5.4%. Such an outcome would leave a September policy rate rise as still a strong possibility. T
Danske: We estimate that non-farm payrolls increased 230,000 in June driven by gains in service sector employment and construction.
Standard Chartered: , we expect another solid, if slight moderation in net job gains of 235,000 in June, versus the current consensus of 230,000. Concurrent data trends support our view for another solid payroll print.
CIBC: . We expect a good, but not so great, 202K increase in June. A pick up in labour force participation was the reason for an uptick in the jobless rate during May, but stillsolid hiring should see that rate move back down again in June. Even another 0.3% monthly increase likely won't see growth in average hourly earnings accelerate from its previous 2.3% annual pace. But with weaker figures dropping out of the annual calculation over the coming months, it should be higher by the time the Fed's September meeting commence.
SEB: we look for 250k on the headline vs. consensus' 230k, 240k on private employment and the unemployment rate to drop a tad to 5.4%.
UBS: The June employment report is likely to show a continued healthy pace of job growth (forecast 230K) after the robust 280K rise in May. UBS expects the unemployment rate to correct accordingly to 5.40% but earnings figures and the inflation implications are becoming central to Fed expectations.
