Preview for Q3 GDP from Australia, due on 3 December 2014 at 0030GMT
- For the ‘headline’, expected is +0.7% q/q, while the prior was +0.5% q/q
- The y/y is expected at 3.1%, prior was 3.1%
I said a little earlier that the market may be disappointed with the data today. I expect the headline might not be too far from the consensus estimate (above, at +0.7%) … I’m thinking +0.6% q/q … because while exports have improved and will add strongly to the GDP result there will likely be a great than expected subtraction from inventories and also a greater than expected negative impact from government finances, which should also surprise to the downside.
Having said this, while the ‘headline’ point is the immediate focus, attention will quickly turn to the internals.
For the AUD … I expect it will remain a sell on a rally. The wildcard for the aussie is, of course, what USD/JPY is doing. USD/JPY is behaving very strongly indeed, further gains for it will see the AUD/USD sold again.
