Preview of the German ZEW economic sentiment numbers due Tuesday 15th September
The German ZEW survey is a good gauge for German sentiment and can be a decent market mover on its day. It's often very reactive to market conditions, even on a short term basis and it stands to take full account of the Chinese wobbles in August
Expectations have been on the slide since the early part of the year but that's been tempered by strength in the current conditions part of the survey
German ZEW numbers
Both are expected to drop in the September release with current conditions falling to 64.0 from 65.7, and expectations falling nearly 7 points to 18.3 from 25.0
China is probably the main reason for the lower expectations but the survey can be run around the last week of the prior month to around the 10th of the survey month. That would put it after the market went bananas and so we may not get the big reaction in the forward looking numbers we're expecting. Certainly the current conditions has a good chance of holding up given recent data
The survey itself is given to around 350 economists and analysts, so it's different to a direct business survey
Trading wise, any real moves will come if the current conditions miss by a good margin, alongside any drop in expectations. That will be negative for the euro. If they hold up while expectations drop the euro probably won't do much. It's not usually a number that brings a big market reaction but it might give an opportunity if it throws whatever intraday trend is going on out of whack
