A look at what's expected for the October 2021 non-farm payrolls report:
- Consensus estimate +425K
- Private +610K
- September +194K
- Unemployment rate consensus estimate: 4.7% vs 4.8% prior
- Participation rate consensus +61.6% vs 61.6% prior
- Prior underemployment U6 prior 8.5%
- Avg hourly earnings y/y exp +4.8% y/y vs +4.6% prior
- Avg hourly earnings m/m exp +0.4% vs +0.6% prior
- Avg weekly hours exp 34.8 vs 34.8 prior
Here's the September jobs story so far:
- ADP +571K vs +400K expected
- ISM services employment 51.6 vs 53.0 prior
- ISM manufacturing employment 52.0 vs 50.2 prior
- Philly employment 30.7 vs 26.3 prior
- Empire employment 17.1 vs 20.5 prior
- Initial jobless claims survey week 291K vs 297K exp
- Challenger Job cuts rose 27.5% compared to Sept and were the highest since May. They cited layoffs due to vaccine mandates
Historically, the November unemployment rate has been below estimates 46% of the time, matched the estimate 38% of the time and was lower 17% of the time, according to BMO. In terms of the headline, it's an even split on beats and misses.
The number I'll be watching this month is labor force participation. It's been stubbornly low since the pandemic and the Fed's not quite sure why. With unemployment special benefits long gone, we might see workers trickling back.
