Details of the Q3 2015 UK preliminary GDP data report 27 October 2015

  • Q2 0.7%
  • 2.3% vs 2.4% exp y/y. Q2 2.4%
  • Construction -2.2% vs +1.4% prior q/q. Biggest fall since Q3 2012
  • Services output 0.7% vs 0.6% prior q/q. Biggest rise since Q4 2014
  • Industrial output 0.3% vs 0.7% prior q/q
  • Aug index of services 0.0% vs 0.2% exp m/m. Prior 0.2%
  • 0.9% vs 1.0% exp 3m/3m. Prior 0.8%

While I get the other details the services output number is possibly going to slow the fall in the pound

The report could have been worse. We're seeing weakness where we would expect to see it and so there's no surprise.

Manufacturing was down - no shock. Mining and quarrying was lower - no shock. Two areas we've seen weakness from. The fall in construction looks big but is usually volatile. The services sector is where we find most of the positivity with only minor falls compared to Q2

UK GDP details

Let me be clear though, nothing here hides the fact that growth has slowed but we're a long way from hitting the panic button

UK GDP y/y