Highlights of the Q3 2015 US GDP advance data report 29 October 2015

  • Q2 3.9%
  • Exports 1.9% vs 5.1% prior
  • Imports 1.8% vs 3.0% prior
  • Q3 sales advance 3.0% vs 2.8% exp. Prior 3.9%
  • Q3 consumer spending 3.2% vs 3.3% exp. Prior 3.6%
  • Durables 6.7% vs 8.0% in Q2
  • Business investment 2.1% vs 4.1% prior
  • Core PCE prices 1.3% vs 1.4% exp q/q. Prior 1.9%
  • GDP price index 1.2% vs 1.4% exp. Prior 2.1%

At a quick glance we're not far from expectations. The sales and consumer spending numbers are close enough not to panic anyone. Core PCE being confirmed lower, and the miss, is probably the most worrying but the Fed says everything is transitory. The reaction in FX tells you exactly what the numbers mean. Not a bloody lot

US Q3 GDP details

The trade numbers highlight that activity dropped significantly. Business investment fell but was driven by lower structural investment

Overall it's a soft quarter, though we know that it's susceptible to some large variations on the revisions

US Q3 GDP