At the start of the quarter, I invited some of your boldest predictions for the quarter. I took a look through them and, let me tell ya, it was a tough to forecast how the past three months turned out.
I’m most impressed by the people who predicted cable around 1.60 after it started the quarter at around 1.52. I predicted cable weakness and that trade started it great as it tanked to 1.48 shortly after the beginning of the quarter but the data soon began to turn around and it was a steady march higher from there, peaking today at 1.6181.
Q3 quarterly FX performance vs USD
From the comments, I think STU2000had the right combination of boldness and accuracy to earn the win. He was one of many (including me) to pick US dollar strength but he was right about GBP strength and correct about JPY and AUD underperformance. He also nailed the Fed taper decision and was right about the Nikkei gain (it has gained almost exactly 8%) and did a pretty good job of forecasting gold when most of us saw it lower.
So STU2000, if you’re lurking, claim your ForexLive T-shirt for forecasting excellence. For everyone else, no time for gloating or loathing, get your predictions ready and we’ll run another contest in a few hours.
