Responses to the NFP report from various banks are incoming - here are responses for various analysts at BNP:
1. We believe the underlying pace of payrolls growth has slowed from around 300k per month at the end of last year to 225k.
- See a bit more than half the surprise in Friday's data as being due to the weather
2. Says "the Fed will take note," of weak March payrolls data
- But are "unlikely to change their tune"
- BNP "disagree with the market pricing out rate hikes this year and while we have reduced our probability, we still put it at a 70% chance that the Fed will hike in 2015."
3. The report "raises the question of whether the soft patch in the data owes only to temporary factors"
- The flow of data will probably keep Fed "cautious for now" as "they will likely need to see further evidence of a slowdown in hiring before moving away from their baseline forecast"
4. "March's employment report was shockingly weak with just 129,000 jobs added and a negative net two month revision of 69k, while the unemployment rate held steady at 5.5%
- Hiring was particularly weaker than expected in the leisure and hospitality and construction sectors, which were likely weather-related.
- However, we also saw some pull-back in the pace of hiring in professional services, healthcare, financial, transport, other services, government, and manufacturing
More reactions:
- From Goldman Sachs
- From Citi
- From BNP
- From BoA/Merrill Lynch
- From UBS and Morgan Stanley
- From Barclays
- From RBC and Credit Suisse
- From CIBC
Note: Adam had earlier reactions here: Seven economists reactions to nonfarm payrolls
