Latest Reuters poll on 32 economists
- All respondents expect the SNB to keep rates steady on Thursday, 13 December
- Earliest call for a rate hike is Q2 2019
- Median estimate for a rate hike is Q4 2019
The median forecast isn't really anything new as it's been established since July that the SNB is likely to only start hiking rates in Q4 2019. This of course comes after the ECB decided on the forward guidance of "through the summer of 2019".
Some context for those not familiar, the SNB is in a spot where they can't really afford to move prior to the ECB as that would see the franc appreciate strongly; something which they don't wish to happen.
However, domestically there are lingering issues as of late that could threaten to derail any odds of the SNB moving away from its ultra-loose policy with Q3 growth surprisingly contracting and core inflation still seen close to the 0% mark.
