Stewart's campaign is over
- Boris Johnson 143 vs 126 yesterday (+17)
- Hunt 54 vs 46 yesterday (+8)
- Gove 51 vs 41 yesterday (+10)
- Javid 38 vs 33 yesterday (+5)
- Stewart 27 vs 37 yesterday (-10)
You would have expected Johnson to get more than 17 of the 30 votes that went to Raab yesterday so I don't see that as a great sign for him. However he's easily assured to be in the final-two.
Stewart getting eliminated is a surprise because he was ahead of Javid yesterday. However some MPs abandoned him for some reason -- I assume they were offered better roles by someone else.
In his comments after the results he said that MPs often switch once they get the sense that you don't have the numbers to win. He was the only candidate who was staunchly against a no-deal Brexit.
The voting continues tomorrow and will continue until just two candidates are left (two votes are planned, morning and afternoon). At that point, the vote will go to party membership (unless the runner-up quits) with a month to vote. A leader will be in place by July 22.
From here it starts to get much more interesting because you would assume that Johnson doesn't pick up many (if any) of the 27 votes from Stewart and that sets up a horse race for second place.
The problem for the rest of the field is that they all poll behind Boris for the final round.
Timeline for tomorrow (BST):
10.00 - 12.00: Fourth ballot.
13.00 approx: Announcement of result.
14.00: Deadline for candidate withdrawal.
15.30 - 17.30: Fifth ballot.
18.00 approx: Announcement of result.
Friday June 21
12.00: Deadline for candidate withdrawal (if necessary)
I continue to believe that the only thing that matters for the pound in this race is that the Conservative party emerges united. Talk like this won't help.
