• Failure to raise debt ceiling will have numerous knock-on effects in financial markets
  • Long-term delay on resolving debt issue increases risk of US recession
  • Chance of default next week is virtually zero. Treasury has assets to meet its obligations immediately after August 2
  • A 60-70 bp rise in yields which could follow a downgrade over the medium-term could add $100 bln to US debt costs.

Sifma is the industry body that represents the big banks and brokerage firms.