Another week is winding down, a week in which forex volatility remained very high but volatility in other financial markets dropped.
Stepping back a step, the dollar remains quite firm but off its best levels. Given that the reduced bleeding in related markets like developed-market equities, emerging markets equities and currencies and a thawing in the credit markets, the worst of the financial crisis looks to be over. The unknown is if the resulting economic hangover is fully priced-in or if markets still have another leg to the downside as they come to grips with a very slow-growth global environment . My personal opinion is a deep recession is very much discounted at present so we are more vulnerable to upside rather than downside economic surprises.
Next week there are a few events of note: A US presidential election, interest rate meetings in the eurozone and UK, a US employment report… Just another relaxing walk in the park.
