I’m still waiting for the market to take a definitive direction following the central-bank-driven Spendtember.
The snag is Spain, which needs to ask for ESM support before risk trades can lift off. Most-likely, Spain won’t ask for aid until after an October 21 regional election but positive hints will be enough to sooth the market.
In the meantime, the US economy needs to show some signs of life or commodity currencies and gold are vulnerable. It’s a big week for economic data that wraps up with non-farm payrolls on Friday but also features the ISMs, including today’s manufacturing number (1o am ET).
After the dire durable goods report last week, I expect the market is priced below the 49.7 consensus (I would guess 49.2 is close to the true expectation).
Seasonally, October is one of the strongest months.
