Société Générale also see plenty more downside to AUD/NZD

The club of AUD/NZD bears is getting crowded indeed, and little wonder after yesterday.

NZD developments:

• In bringing forward its forecast for an RBNZ rate hike in November, BNZ says the time to hike is now
• BNZ now forecast the REBNZ to hike its cash rate in November 2021
• Heads up for NZD traders - the next RBNZ Monetary Policy Review is July 14
• More on NZ banks calling RBNZ rate hikes sooner (ASB forecasting November this year)
• More RBNZ rate hike speculation - sooner rather than later
• ANZ in New Zealand are also calling for RBNZ rate hikes sooner
• NZD/USD on the rise after the QSBO and ASB's RBNZ cash rate hike call
• NZ bank ASB forecasts the RBNZ hiking its cash rate in November this year
• New Zealand QSBO for Q2 2021, business confidence headline 7% (vs. -13% prior)
• NZD traders - heads up for the GDT dairy auction coming up Tuesday London time
• Market pricing for an RBNZ November rate hike is above 70%

And more from NZ today:

• Another NZ bank forecasts an RBNZ rate hike in November ... Westpac is forecasting a Reserve Bank of New Zealand cash rate hike in November 2021

Meanwhile, in Sydney the RBA tiptoes towards easing with a small change to the QE program:

• No big surprises by the RBA today
• AUD/NZD gets RBA green light for continued push lower
• RBA's Lowe: Do not expect cash rate to be increased until 2024 at the earliest

SG comments:

• no wonder that AUD bulls continued to migrate to the NZD. Not such an enticing balance of payments story, but at least the RBNZ is likely to react to recovery and housing inflation with (much) earlier rate hikes. There's plenty more downside to AUD/NZD.

And, more from SG on the Reserve Bank of Australia:

• policy meeting concluded with cautious economic optimism, a mini-tapering of asset purchases to AUD$4 B per week from September onwards (from AUD5 B now), and a suggestion rate hikes aren't likely before 2024
• We don't think that the RBA can prevent AUD/USD from rising further if commodity prices remain high, and as the economy recovers from the latest round of lockdowns. But the currency will remain soft enough to ensure that Australia's current account surplus remains sizeable