I read earlier made by a large US bank.
I’ve kinda paraphrased their stuff (well at least I didn’t cut and paste it)
I put them in the readers’ comments earlier and thought I might as well put them up here, what the heck.
I kinda see the world the way they do.
“Bank expects BOJ will announce 2% inflation target, will increase size of asset purchases by 10 trln yen and will lower IOER (interest on excess reserves by 5 bps
Sees announcement of 2% inflation target as done deal. Lack of this will see major reversal in JPY (much stronger)
Sees lack of addtional asset purchaes as not as big a deal as above.
On the flip side
BOJ surprises on ‘dovish side’ (bullish USD/JPY) if larger than expected asset purchases (above 10 trln I guess); announces it will pursue ‘open-ended’ asset purchases until 2% inflation target reached or announces the QE might be co-ordinated with fx intervention (I’d be really surprised if they mentioned fx intervention)”
