Nomura recommends selling EUR/USD on rallies toward 1.34 with a stop at 1.36 and a target of 1.29.
Jens Nordvig, global head of FX strategy at Nomura, observed that the “risk premium compression trend” continues to be the key driver for the euro, with eurozone assets benefiting as well from positive news on the U.S. fiscal front.
Bob Lynch at HSBC says a strong NFP could push EUR/USD back to the 2012 high of 1.3485 but ultimately it will fade.
Carl Weinberg at HFE says deficits will ultimately be the undoing of the euro.
“With miserable economic and financial conditions, we cannot predict anything but a slide of the euro against the U.S. dollar, where public sector finances will be stabler by far,” Weinberg said.
I tend to disagree with all of them but it’s worth listening to both sides.
