Friday S&P ratings
- real GDP growth of 0.5% for 2016 1.5% for 2017
- financing need risen beyond expectations
- S&P sees South Africa general government that average 4.9% of GDP
- Gross debt of 54% of GDP in 2019
- real GDP growth 0.5% for 2016. 1.4% for 2017
- Debt to rise average of 4.9% of GDP from 2016 to 2018
- delivery of reforms has been piecemeal
The South African rand has extended gains after S&P affirms foreign-currency rating. The fear coming into the rating announcement was that the country would be downgraded to junk status. They seemed to have dodged a bullet for the time being at least.
Technically, the price has moved below the 100 hour MA and the 100 day MAs at 13.9603 and 13.93452. That is now resistance (see bluelines in the chart below). The 100 day MA was a support level yesterday and again on Wednesday (after moving above the line). The 61.8% of the move up this week is being tested at 13.8626 now with a break next targeting the 13.8315 level.
In other rating announcements:
Bulgaria affirmed by S&P outlook stable.
- employment will grow by around 1% 2016. Unemployment rate further decreased to a percent
- projects deficit to narrow to 0.8% of GDP
On Ireland:
- sees impact on Brexit on Irish economy negative but manageable
- expects real GDP growth rate of 3.5% in 2016. 3% in 2017 to 2019
- Sees Ireland net general government debt averaging 63% of GDP from 2016 to 2019
