— See Separate Table For Details Of Individual Forecasts
TOKYO (MNI) – Japan is expected to have posted a current account
surplus of Y1.525 trillion in October, up 9.3% on year, the second
straight year-on-year increase, according to the median forecast of
economists surveyed by Market News International.
The Ministry of Finance will release the data at 0850 JST on
Wednesday, Dec.8 (2350 GMT Tuesday).
Economists expect the y/y growth in the October surplus to have
shrunk, compared with +24.3% in September, mainly because growth in the
income and trade accounts, the major components, decelerated.
Japan’s trade surplus on a custom-cleared basis, which was already
released by the MOF on Nov. 25, rose only 2.7% y/y in October, slowing
sharply from +52.8% in September, as imports rose 8.7% on year,
surpassing exports’ growth of +7.8%.
Exports of automobiles, which have led Japan’s exports for at least
15 years, rose only 10.2% y/y in October, gradually slowing from surges
higher than 100% marked in February, March and April this year.
Also, the surplus in the income account, the largest component of
the current account balance, is expected to have declined or have shown
only a slight gain y/y in October, as interest and dividend income from
Japan’s overseas investment has been shrinking due mainly to the strong
yen exchange rate and low interest rates in industrialized nations.
The yen appreciated by 7.3% on year in October, with the dollar/yen
exchange rate averaging at Y83.42, according to trade data for the month
released by the MOF.
Masao Okayama, economist at Norinchukin Research Institute,
forecast the income account surplus came to Y913.2 billion in October,
up slightly from Y849.9 billion a earlier before, suggesting the current
account surplus will show a small increase.
skodama@marketnews.com
** Market News International Tokyo Newsroom: 81-3-5403-4838 **
[TOPICS: M$J$$$,M$A$$$,MAJDS$]
