CHICAGO (MNI) – The following is the full text of a release Monday
from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago with forecasts from its annual
Economic Outlook Syposium, held in Chicago Dec. 3:

The twenty-fourth annual Economic Outlook Symposium, held in
Chicago on December 3, drew participants from the manufacturing,
banking, and auto industries, as well as academia and consulting and
service firms. One session of the symposium presented the results from
the consensus economic outlook. This year, 30 individuals provided a
consensus outlook — forecasts for major components of real gross
domestic product (GDP), as well as several key statistics for the U.S.
economy.

The median forecast results are presented in the table. According
to the median forecast of symposium participants, the nations economic
growth is expected to increase at a solid pace in 2011, inflation is
predicted to edge higher next year, and the unemployment rate is
forecasted to decrease slightly in 2011.

The consensus outlook shows that rate of real GDP growth is
forecasted to be 2.4% this year but then 3.0% in 2011. Inflation, as
measured by the Consumer Price Index, is expected to average 0.9% this
year and then 1.6% in 2011. The unemployment rate is forecasted to edge
down to a still quite high 9.2% by the end of next year.

Consumer spending is predicted to rise at a moderate pace next
year, according to the consensus economic outlook. Business spending is
expected to increase in 2011. The housing sector is forecasted to
improve after experiencing five years of decline. In particular, the
consensus outlook shows residential investment is expected to decrease,
at a rate of -4.7%, this year but then rise, at a 9.6% pace, in 2011.

Car and light truck sales are expected to increase to 12.7 million
units in 2011 — above this year’s anticipated sales of 11.5 million
units. Oil prices are expected to rise to $82.67 per barrel in the final
quarter of this year and then edge higher to around $85 per barrel by
the end of 2011. The rate of industrial production growth is forecasted
to be 5.4% in 2010 and then 4.3% next year.

The short-term interest rate (one-year Treasury rate) is expected
to go up by 35 basis points from 2010 to 2011, and the long-term rate
(ten-year Treasury rate) is predicted to increase 46 basis points over
the same time period. The trade-weighted U.S. dollar is expected to
remain unchanged in 2011.

A summary of the twenty-fourth annual Economic Outlook Symposium
will be published in an upcoming issue of Chicago Fed Letter.

** Market News International Chicago Bureau: 708-784-1849 **

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