— Unemployment rate Still Expected Above 9% Into Mid 2011
— CPI, Interets Rates Revised Downward

Washington (MNI) – The following is the text of the June Livingston
Survey published Wednesday by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia,
showing forecasters are revising growth expectations upward but are
still expecting the unemployment rate to be above 9% through the middle
of 2011 despite a downward revision from the December’s estimate:

The 40 participants in the June Livingston Survey have raised their
estimates of output growth through 2010. The forecasters, who are
surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia twice a year,
project that the economys output (real GDP) will rise at an annual rate
of 3.3 percent for both halves of 2010. Both of these estimates are
higher than those of the previous survey. Growth for the first half of
2011 is predicted to fall to 3.0 percent.

Projections for the unemployment rate have been revised downward
throughout 2010, but it is still expected to remain above 9 percent into
the middle of 2011. The forecasters predict that the unemployment rate
will be 9.8 percent in June 2010 and that it will fall to 9.5 percent in
December 2010. The unemployment rate in the middle of 2011 is expected
to be 9.1 percent. On an annual average basis, the unemployment rate is
expected to be 9.7 percent in 2010 and 9.1 percent in 2011.

Growth Rate of
Real GDP (%) Unemployment Rate (%)
Previous New Previous New
Half-year data:
2009 Q4 to 2010 Q2 2.6 3.3 June 2010 10.3 9.8
2010 Q2 to 2010 Q4 3.0 3.3 Dec 2010 9.9 9.5
2010 Q4 to 2011 Q2 N.A. 3.0 June 2011 N.A. 9.1

CPI Inflation Predictions Revised Downward

The forecasters have lowered their predictions for consumer price
(CPI) inflation over the next six months to 1.8 percent, compared to 2.2
percent from the survey of six months ago. On an annual average basis,
CPI inflation is expected to be 1.8 percent in 2010 and 1.7 percent in
2011, both lower than the previous estimates of 2.2 percent and 1.8
percent, respectively. Producer price (PPI) inflation is expected to be
4.1 percent in 2010 and then fall to 2.4 percent in 2011, compared to
the previous estimates of 2.4 percent and 2.2 percent, respectively.

CPI Inflation (%) PPI Inflation (%)
Previous New Previous New
Annual average data:
2009 to 2010 2.2 1.8 2.4 4.1
2010 to 2011 1.8 1.7 2.2 2.4

Projections for Interest Rates Revised Downward

The forecasts for interest rates on three-month Treasury bills and
10-year Treasury notes have fallen from those made six months ago. The
interest rate on three-month Treasury bills is expected to be 0.16
percent at the end of June, down from the previous estimate of 0.25
percent. It is then expected to rise to 0.40 percent by the end of 2010.
The interest rate for 10-year Treasury notes is expected to be 3.50
percent at the end of June, down from the previous estimate of 3.76
percent. It is then expected to rise to 4.00 percent by the end of 2010,
lower than the previous estimate of 4.10 percent.

3-Month Treasury Bill 10-Year Treasury Bond
Interest Rate Interest Rate
Previous New Previous New
June 30, 2010 0.25 0.16 3.76 3.50
Dec. 31, 2010 1.00 0.40 4.10 4.00
June 30, 2011 N.A. 1.21 N.A. 4.28
Dec. 30, 2011 2.71 1.99 4.64 4.55

The forecasters’ predictions for long-term output growth are
slightly higher, while their predictions for long-term inflation are
slightly lower. The panelists think that real GDP will grow 2.8 percent
annually over the next 10 years, up from 2.7 percent in the previous
survey. Inflation (measured by the consumer price index) is expected to
average 2.3 percent over the next 10 years, slightly lower than the 2.4
percent estimated from the survey of six months ago.

Stock-Price Projections Revised Downward

The projected value for the S&P 500 index is 1115.0 for the end of
June and is expected to rise to 1187.6 by the end of 2010, below the
previous estimates of 1155.2 and 1197.0, respectively. The index is
expected to finish 2011 at 1280.0, higher than the previous estimate of
1250.0.

Stock Prices
S&P 500 Index
Previous New
June 30, 2010 1155.2 1115.0
Dec. 31, 2010 1197.0 1187.6
June 30, 2011 N.A. 1243.5
Dec. 30, 2011 1250.0 1280.0

** Market News International Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 **

[TOPICS: M$U$$$,MAUDS$]