Text:Pro Forecaster Outlook Better From 3-Mo Ago;GDP +3.3% -1

Friday, 14/05/2010 | 14:05 GMT

WASHINGTON (MNI) – The following is the text of a Philadelphia
Federal Reserve survey of professional forecasters. The forecasters
outlook for the economy has improved from three months ago, May 14:

Forecasters See Stronger Recovery

The outlook for the U.S. economy over the next few quarters looks
stronger now than it did just three months ago, according to 44
forecasters surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The
forecasters predict real GDP will grow at an annual rate of 3.3 percent
over each of the next two quarters, up from the previous estimate of 2.7
percent. On an annual-average over annual-average basis, the forecasters
expect more robust real GDP growth in 2010 and 2011, but slower real GDP
growth in 2012 and 2013.The forecasters see real GDP growing 3.3 percent
in 2010, up from their prediction of 3.0 percent in the last survey. The
forecasters predict real GDP will grow 3.1 percent in 2011, 3.2 percent
in 2012, and 2.9 percent in 2013.

Stronger conditions in the labor market accompany the outlook for
growth. Unemployment is now projected to be an annual average of 9.6
percent in 2010, before falling to 8.9 percent in 2011, 8.0 percent in
2012, and 7.1 percent in 2013. On the jobs front, the forecasters have
revised upward the growth in jobs over the next four quarters. The
forecasters see nonfarm payroll employment growing at a rate of 207,300
jobs per month this quarter and 120,500 jobs per month next quarter.
Both estimates mark strong upward revisions from the previous survey.
Over the first half of 2011, jobs will grow at an average rate of
215,500 per month. The forecasters’ projections for the annual average
level of nonfarm payroll employment suggest job losses at a lowered
monthly rate of 37,500 in 2010. Job gains in 2011 are seen averaging
184,000 per month, as the table below shows. (These annual-average
estimates are computed as the year-to-year change in the annual-average
level of nonfarm payroll employment, converted to a monthly rate.)

SUMMARY TABLE
SURVEY OF PROFESSIONAL FORECASTERS
MAJOR MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS

___________________________________

2010 2010 2010 2011 2011
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
___________________________________

PERCENT GROWTH AT ANNUAL RATES

1. REAL GDP 3.3 3.3 2.8 2.7 3.2
(BILLIONS, CHAIN WEIGHTED)

2. GDP PRICE INDEX 1.3 1.4 1.8 1.8 1.7
(PERCENT CHANGE)

3. NOMINAL GDP 4.5 4.3 4.7 4.7 4.6
($ BILLIONS)

4. NONFARM PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT
(PERCENT CHANGE) 1.9 1.1 1.4 2.0 2.0
(AVG MONTHLY CHANGE) 207.3 120.5 153.3 213.8 217.3

VARIABLES IN LEVELS

5. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 9.8 9.6 9.5 9.3 9.1
(PERCENT)

6. 3-MONTH TREASURY BILL 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.3
(PERCENT)

7. 10-YEAR TREASURY BOND 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.2 4.4
(PERCENT)