The jobs survey was done too early in the month
Strap in for another edition of non-farm payrolls but unfortunately this one isn't going to tell us much.
The survey week is March 12 -- the same as ADP (-27K). That report was far stronger than what jobless claims have shown, and what everyone on the ground sees: Millions of people are losing work.
The consensus is -100K with 3.8% unemployment. I can't see any number that impacts the markets.
The numbers to watch come later. At 1400 GMT, the ISM non-manufacturing index will offer a better look at how the service sector is coping with the sudden stop. The consensus is 43.0 in a steep drop from 57.3 but the range is 34.8 to 48.3.
The other one to watch is at 1700 GMT with the Baker Hughes US drilling rig count. Rigs have begun to shut down rapidly and are at 624. There is talk of an eventual fall to 300.
