A lot has happened in the last 18 months and it is interesting now to look back at markets and see how they are relatively situated. If the GFC is totally behind us, then perhaps some currencies have a bit of catch up to play.
When the AUD/USD broke above .88 in mid-2007 in the midst of the global economic boom, the majors were at the following levels; EUR/USD 1.38, USD/JPY 120 and cable 2.04.
When the AUD/USD broke back below .88 in August 2008 as the credit crisis was emerging, the levels were; EUR 1.48, JPY 109 and cable 1.86.
Quite obviously the big mover has been GBP/JPY, falling from 245 two years ago to 145 today. We now get to decide whether the move to 245 was way overdone in the first place, whether the fall to 145 has been similarly overdone, and where the truth lies.
