Three rate cuts are priced in by the September meeting now
The moves in the rates market over the past two weeks have been something else. On 14 February, odds of a 25 bps rate cut by the Fed for the March meeting were only at 10%. Now, the market has fully priced that in and then some.
Meanwhile, over three rate cuts are fully priced in for the remaining ten months of the year with the next cut seen in June and the third in September.
I think the big question now is, will the Fed be bullied by the market into yet another rate cut this time around? So far, they haven't dropped any hints about a move next month but there's still two-and-a-half weeks to go.
