There are a lot of smart people on the Street but every once in awhile something comes along and the pieces don’t quite fit. If you’re picking winners and losers in the ECB/Greece debt-swap game, remember that it’s a zero sum game. If central banks are getting a better deal then Greece is getting the shaft.
My take is that a lot of people cover EUR shorts first and sort out the details later. At first take, this looks way overdone. The good news is that we are seeing progress — the bailout and PSI look like they will take place on Monday.
