Top events and releases from October 3 to October 9th

Before we get to next week, the China Manufacturing PMI will be released at 9 PM ET/0100GMT with the expectations for a small rise to 50.5 from 50.4 last month.

As for the top 5 events and releases, this is how I see it:

1. US Employment report (Friday, October 7th at 8:30 AM ET/ 1230 GMT). The September US employment report will be released with the expectations for nonfarm payroll to increase by 170 K vs. 151K last month. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.9%. Average hourly earnings for the month are expected to rise by 0.3% versus a 0.1% in August. With the Fed buying employment and inflation for additional evidence of a stronger economy worthy of a rate rise, the employment report is always an important economic release.

2. RBA interest rate decision (Monday/Tuesday l11:30 PM ET/ 0330GMT): All economist polled by Bloomberg expect the rate to remain steady at 1.5%(the rate was last changed in July from 1.75% to 1.50%). At the last meeting the RBA said:

  • Recent data suggest that overall growth is continuing, despite a very large decline in business investment, helped by growth in other areas of domestic demand and exports. Labour market indicators continue to be somewhat mixed, but suggest continued expansion in employment in the near term.
  • Inflation remains quite low. Given very subdued growth in labour costs and very low cost pressures elsewhere in the world, this is expected to remain the case for some time.
  • Low interest rates have been supporting domestic demand and the lower exchange rate since 2013 is helping the traded sector. Financial institutions are in a position to lend for worthwhile purposes. These factors are all assisting the economy to make the necessary economic adjustments, though an appreciating exchange rate could complicate this.

3. CAD employment report (Friday, October 7 at 8:30 AM ET/1230 GMT). This month, Canada release their unemployment statistics on the same day and time of the US employment report. The expectations for change in employment is 7.5 K versus 26.2 K in August. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 7.0% and the participation rate is also expected to remain unchanged at 65.5%

4. UK manufacturing PMI. (Monday, October 3 at 4:30 AM ET/0830 GMT). The manufacturing PMI for the month of September will be released with expectations of a decline to 52.1 from 53.3. The index fell sharply in July to 48.3 as a result of the Brexit vote. This was lowest level going back to September 2013. The market will be sensitive to timely economic data as the economy adjusts to life outside the EU

5. Australia Retail Sales (Tuesday/Wednesday 8:30 PM ET/0030 GMT). The Australia retail sales for August will be release with expectations for a rise of 0.2% from 0.0%.

Other key data includes:

  • US ISM manufacturing PMI for September will be released on Monday, October 3 at 10 AM ET/1400 GMT, with the expectations of a rise to 50.2 from 49.4.
  • UK construction PMI for September will be released on Tuesday at 4:30 AM ET/0830 GMT, with expectations of a dip to 49.0 from 49.2
  • US ADP nonfarm employment change for September will be released on Wednesday, October 5 at 8:15 AM ET/12 15 GMT. The expectations are for a gain of 163K versus last months 177K.
  • Fed speakers next week include Lacker and Evans on Tuesday, Kashkari and Lacker on Wednesday. Fischer, Mester, George and Brainard on Friday.
  • RBNZ Wheeler will speak on Monday at 930 PM ET/0130 GMT on Tuesday).