The top forecasters are all looking at over 200k for NFP
Time to look at who's picking what number out of the hat for the jobs numbers later. All the top 5 have plucked a number over 200k and only one out of the top ten is a shade below 200k at 195k. The market is generally looking for payrolls to bounce back.
Here's the top 5 pickers
- Nariman Behravesh - IHS Global 201k
- Max Clarke - IDEAglobal 235k
- Wesbury/Stein - First Trust Advisors 275k
- Girard/Berger - RBS Securities 235k
- Intesa Sanpaolo 230k
Whether last months result was a one will be answered one way or another today and the market is leaning towards a favourable number. The lowest estimate according to Bloomberg is 175k while the highest is 327k. Bloomberg has the consensus at 228k while Reuters is looking for 224k
Anything over 200k will ease any market fears but a sub 200 number will be bad news for the buck. There might be some forgiveness for something 199-175k but anything worse than that and some real questions could be asked of the jobs market
I'll have some dollar levels up for you soon