Yen buying, not euro weakness is the story on Greece

Trading the euro on Greek headlines has proven to be extremely tough, almost nonsensical. Euro carry trades and bond market moves are sideswiping EUR/USD and making it a bitterly difficult trade.

The two best ways to trade it are:

  1. The yen. Yen crosses are near session lows right across the board. USD/JPY is down to 123.76 from 124.37 a few hours ago.
  2. European stocks

If a Greek deal fails, sell yen crosses (CAD/JPY or GBP/JPY or a basket) or short European stock markets. I think we're swinging toward negative probabilities right now so those trades are attractive.

Mason is the economics editor at Channel 4 news