OECD sees

  • 2009 GDP in OECD area -3.5%, +1.9% in 2010, +2.5% in 2011
  • Assumes Fed, ECB rates on hold until “close to end 2010″
  • 2009 World GDP -1.7%, +3.4% in 2010, +3.7% in 2011
  • BOJ rates should stay on hold through 2010 and 2011 due to deflation
  • 2009 Euro area GDP -4.0%, +0.9% in 2010, +1.7% in 2011
  • BOE rates “normalisation will probably need to start in 2011″
  • 2009 U.S. GDP -2.5%, +2.5% in 2010, +2.8% in 2011
  • 2009 UK GDP -4.7%, +1.2% in 2010, +2.2% in 2011
  • 2009 Japan GDP -5.3%, +1.8% in 2010, +2.0% in 2011

Other snippets

  • Due to debt rise, fiscal consolidation vital but not at pace that undermines recovery
  • Risk of disorderly exchange rate adjustment cannot be ruled out

Comments from OECD’s chief economist

  • Low inflation means China has no urgent need to shift yuan policy
  • China’s need to change policy “prospective rather than acute”
  • World trade growth will help euro zone even if strong euro hits competitiveness
  • Part of recent dollar weakness due to loss of “safe haven” effect
  • OECD’s world trade growth forecasts might be on conservative side (SEE, HE’S ALREADY TELLING YOU THEY’RE PROBABLY WRONG)