They told us Greece would never restructure…

Then they told us they would never restructure unless it was voluntary.

Now they are telling us they may shove a restructuring down the market’s throat.

So if you are a bondholder in another country on the periphery of the euro zone, are you going to believe the EU’s protestations that Greece was a “one-off” and that there will not be any further restructurings?

Of course you won’t. You are a rational investor.

If you boink me once, odds are you’ll boink me again…

Another round of sovereign debt contagion is a high risk ahead.

Short EUR/USD with a stop above 1.2850 looks like a safe bet.