SocGen, TD and BTMU share their thoughts on the Aussie

They could be three wise women of course.

The weaker retail sales from Oz have been the focus of analysis by the banks and three of them have their say on the currency.

SocGen

" Overnight data in Asia saw AUD coming under further pressure on the release of the weaker-than-expected March retail sales in Australia.

AUD is the worst-performing of the major currencies as commodities and domestic demand both hurt, rate differentials are not helping AUD either.

We have been prevaricating about when to go short AUD/CAD and now there's a strong risk we've missed our chance, but it definitely isn't time to buy AUD yet,"

BTMU

"The downward pressure on the AUD has been reinforced by the release of the weaker than expected Australian retail sales report for March which poses downside risks for economic growth in Q1.

The main driver of AUD weakness over the last couple of months has been the pullback in commodity prices.

BTMU believes that AUD likely to remain on the defensive in the near-term with AUD/USD rate is now approaching key technical support at just below the 0.7300 and 0.7200 levels which could help to slow the pace of the Aussie's decline in the near-term."

TD

"TD notes that the while the weakness is AUD is in part driven by the budget, there are also other factors are at play.

"For one thing overnight data came in weaker data than expected. Retail sales slipped on both the month and quarter, reflecting a pullback in department store sales. This setup argues that growth is off to a sluggish start in Q1. For another, the greenback is starting to creep higher, which is weighing on the G10 complex more broadly,TD

Strategy-wise, TD looks to fade AUD/USD positioning related bounces with resistance near 0.7388."

Greg's just put up a detailed post on the Aussie so I'll keep mine brief.

AUDUSD 15m chart

0.7375/80 looks to be intraday resistance but a case can be made to see that up to 0.7390 and indeed 0.7400. AUDUSD is trying to get off the mat but it's going to take something special to turn this trend around right now.

eFX News did the hard work in collecting the bank notes so check them out here.