The more I read, the more skeptical I get about early 2012 US growth. I just read a story on gold that said:
“Gold prices may be under pressure from a strengthening dollar in the next few months as the brightened economic prospects in the United States are likely to further boost the dollar index,” said Li Ning, an analyst at Shanghai CIFCO Futures.
It seems as though everyone is talking about a pickup in US growth. Sure,we’ve had some good figures on jobless claims, housing and some improvements in regional manufacturing but those are bouncing from depressed levels and may be affected by seasonality.
The media estimates for Q1 and Q2 are 1.8% and 2.0% while the full-year forecast is 2.1% compared to 1.8% this year. That’s not the kind of growth that gets me excited.
What makes me especially skeptical is that the same thing happened around this time in each of the past two years. Maybe it’s the time of year where everyone is optimistic; maybe some analysts are saying “brightened economic prospects” when all they should be saying “outperforming Europe and Japan” and now the sheep are following the crowd.
I’m optimistic too but I make trades based on the news and data and so far, it’s pointing to a delicate US economy that could falter if Europe dips.
