Trade ideas thread - European session 14 September 2021
Daily thread to exchange ideas and to share your thoughtsAfter some back and forth action yesterday, the week looks to finally get started as we get to the US CPI data release later today.
While the market is looking for something to work with, it may not necessarily have immediate implications for Fed policy. But as is the case with market moves, it is all about the anticipation and expectations instead.
A hotter-than-expected inflation report may prompt concerns that the Fed's resolve on 'transitory' may not hold up for too long, paving the way for quicker normalisation in policy i.e. tapering in order to afford more flexibility going into next year.
That will likely keep equities pressured after the more subdued period last week too.
But still, I'd wager that a taper announcement will only come in November so the data here will only serve to reaffirm the timeline more than anything else realistically.
Besides that, I'm still leaning towards AUD/NZD shorts as a favoured play in FX and eyeing a further breakout in oil as prices now test the $71 level.
There's very heavy talk about surging energy prices and a very expensive winter to come so that will be something to watch out for in the weeks/months ahead.