–May claimant count unemployment -30,900; rate 4.6%
–Feb-Apr ILO unemployment +23,000 q/q; rate 7.9%
–Apr total weekly earnings +4.2% 3m y/y vs +4.3% in Mar
–Apr regular weekly earnings +1.9% 3m y/y vs +2.0% in Mar

LONDON (MNI) – Claimant count unemployment posted a further sharp
decline in May, with the rate hitting its lowest level since April 2009,
figures released by National Statistics showed Wednesday.

Claimant count unemployment fell 30,900 between April and May, a
greater decline than the 20,000 forecast by City analysts. The claimant
count unemployment rate fell to 4.6% from 4.7% in the previous month,
the lowest level since April 2009.

There was also a revision to the April figures which now show the
claimant count decline 32,000 on the month compared with the originally
estimated 27,100 fall. The claimant count has now fallen in six out of
the past seven months.

The claimant count figures, which measure the number of people out
of work and claiming Job Seekers Allowance, are the most up to date
measure of unemployment across the UK.

While the claimant count seemingly points to a labour market and
economy bouncing back more sharply than most analysts expected, the
picture is confused by the less timely official measure of jobless based
on the ILO measure which was up 23,000 in the thee months to April 2010,

National Statistics said that comparing the two measures over the
three months to April showed that they were diverging. An NS spokesperson
said that this divergence was mainly due to those who were jobless for
more than one year where the ILO measure was increasing more rapidly
than the claimant count measure. The spokesperson said they could not
explain why this was the case.

Average weekly earnings for total pay eased slightly to 4.2%
in the three months to April compared with a year earlier from 4.3% in
March, below the median forecast of 4.5%.

For the month on April alone earnings growth fell to 0.9% on the
year from 6.2% in the previous month. National Statistics said that the
March figures had been boosted by higher bonus payments this year and
the rate had now fallen back in line with rates seen in December and
January.

Excluding bonuses, regular pay growth fell to 1.9% from 2%, broadly
in line with the median forecast of 2%.

The Office for Budget Responsibility, now in charge of the
government’s forecasts, predicted in projections released this week that
unemployment would peak this year and drift down, with the claimant
count falling from 1.5 million in Q4 this year to 1.4 million next.

It stood at 1.481 million in May which, if the OBR is correct,
means it will remain little changed for the remainder of this year.

–London bureau: 00 44 207 862 7491; email: drobinson@marketnews.com

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