–Nov Claimant Count Unemployment +3,000 m/m; Rate 5%

LONDON (MNI) – Claimant count unemployment was up only slightly on
the month in November showing the labour market has not deteriorated as
much as most economists expected, figures released by National
Statistics showed Wednesday.

The data continue to show the labour market seemingly holding up
reasonably well considering the weaker growth seen during the year.
Claimant count unemployment rose 3,000 on the month in November, with
the rate holding steady at 5%. This followed a downwardly revised 2,500
increase in October from the initial estimated 5,300 rise.

Analysts had expected to see a rise in the claimant count of 15,000
on the month in November and a 25,000 rise last month, but the combined
increase over the past two months stands at just 5,500.

National Statistics would not comment on why the claimant count
rises have eased in recent months. One possible reason is that firms
with fairly lean workforces have taken on more seasonal workers than
usual – with the recent KMPG/REC survey showing a pick up in temporary
pay and jobs.

The ‘official’ ILO unemployment data appear to show a different
picture with joblessness up 128,000 in the latest quarter and the
unemployment rate at 8.3%. The ILO data, though, is lagging and it is
likely to show far smaller increases over the coming months. Analysis by
National Statistics for the last comparable quarter showed the claimant
count and ILO measure of unemployment had moved “quite closely”.

Looking ahead, it is difficult, to be optimistic about the outlook
for unemployment and employment. Survey data from the PMI surveys in
December suggested the outlook for employment deteriorated. The Office
for Budget Responsibility last month forecast the ILO unemployment rate
to rise to 8.7% by the end of 2012 from its current 8.3%.

Earnings growth remained subdued. Headline Average Weekly Earnings
fell to 2% in October from 2.3% in September, in line with the median
forecast.

Excluding bonuses, headline growth in regular pay rose to 1.8% from
1.7%, a little above the 1.7% median forecast.

–London bureau: 00 44 207 862 7491 e:mail: drobinson@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MABDA$,M$B$$$,MT$$$$,MABDS$]