-Oct Claimant Count Unemployment +10,100; rate 4.8%
-Sep Claimant Count Unemployment revised to +800 from -4,000
-Sep Average Weekly Earnings total pay +1.8% vs +1.7% in Aug
-Jul-Sep ILO Unemployment -49,000; Rate 7.8%

LONDON (MNI) – Claimant count unemployment rose unexpectedly in
October at its fastest pace for more than a year, although some of this
is likely due to a temporary effect from the Olympics.

While the headline figure shows a larger rise than the median
forecast, the latest increase probably represents a bounceback to more
normal levels following a dip in July and August caused by the Olympics.
National Statistics has never acknowledged officially any Olympic
effect, but it seems likely that the claimant count will tick up further
next month back to around the level see in June.

National Statistics have pointed to the London figures which showed
falls in the run up to the Olympics and have risen by 3,600 and 2,900
respectively in September and October, accounting for most of the
increase in the claimant count.

The claimant count was up 10,100 on the month in October following
a revised rise of 800 in September, from an initially estimated 4000
decline. Analysts had forecast no change in October.

Given the distortions of the Olympics it is too early to say the
claimant count is now on an upward trend. Moreover, distortions to the
benefit system from lone parent income support means the actual change
in the claimant count is more likely closer to flat on the month — not
as bad as the headline figure.

The ILO numbers showed a healthy fall of 49,000 in Jul-Sep against
the previous three months, although this will still be impacted by the
Olympics. Movements in the ILO data usually lag those in the claimant
count so expect to see smaller falls or a possible rise over the coming
months. Employment was up 100,000 over the same period.

Earnings growth remains very soft with the headline weekly earnings
rate rising to 1.8% in September from 1.7% in August, below the median
for 1.9%.

Excluding bonuses headline growth dipped to 1.9% from 2%, below the
median of 2%.

-London bureau: 00 44 207 862 7491 e:mail: puglow@marketnews.com

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