Results of the leadership vote

The latest results:

  • Boris Johnson - 126 (114 prior)
  • Jeremy Hunt - 46 (43 prior)
  • Michael Gove 41 (37 prior)
  • Dominic Raab - 30 (27 prior)
  • Sajid Javid - 33 (23 prior)
  • Rory Stewart - 37 (19 prior)

That means Raab is knocked out. I expected Johnson to gain more than 12 votes so that's a disappointment and points to continued in fighting. Raab's supporters will likely go to Johnson, so that's a boost but my playbook for the results is to buy/sell signs of Conservative party unity and Johnson needs an overwhelming lead for that to happen. He will expand it with Raab's help but after that, he might flatline.

Tonight there is another debate and tomorrow there is another vote. Javid will be in a battle to stay alive. Watch out for him to drop out before the votes are cast.

Rory Steward has some good momentum, picking up 18 votes. That's more than anyone else this round. If he can get ahead of Gove, it will change the complexion of the race.

Not much reaction from GBP on this.