The data is due at 0830GMT today, Thursday 19 April 2018
For some strange reason (that I still haven't figured out) I was expecting it yesterday .... errr ... wrong.
So ... I had posted previews yesterday but ICYMI .... let's do it all over again!
Retail Sales:
Barclays:
- Barclaycard data indicate significant weakness in weather sensitive areas such as spending at garden centres and DIY stores, signaling that March retail sales might be negatively impacted by the storms.
Nomura:
- There is more than the usual uncertainty associated with the March sales print.
- On the positive side, the BRC reported a rise in sales growth during the month. However, much of that could be due to the early timing of Easter (which is not adjusted for by the BRC, but is by the ONS).
- The CBI reported the sales balance was far more downbeat (it turned negative in March) and we expect the dominant factor in the official data will be the negative effect on footfall of the cold weather and snow. As a result, we forecast a decline in official sales in March.
Daiwa:
- The latest surveys from this sector suggested that weather affected High Street activity last month, but also that there were strong food sales ahead of the Easter holidays. Overall, we would not be surprised to see a decline in overall sales, in particular given that they rose by a quite firm 0.8%M/M in February. With regard to new Gilts issuance, the DMO will issue 10Y bonds on Thursday.
